Key Takeaways:

88% of Bitcoin’s supply is in profit below $95,000, indicating a reset in investor expectations.

The current price range of $75,000–$95,000 may represent a structural bottom, aligning with market conditions from Q3 2024.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio at 1.74 acts as a historical support zone, signaling cooling unrealized gains and potential for future growth.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) market dynamics are shifting, as Glassnode data reveals that 88% of the supply is currently in profit, with losses concentrated among buyers in the $95,000-$100,000 range. This high profitability, rebounding from a long-term mean of 75%, indicates a reset in investor expectations. 

Bitcoin percent supply in profit. Source: X.com

Bitcoin’s price staged a recovery from its long-term cumulative mean percentage in profit, marking a notable shift. Previously, in August 2024, Bitcoin retested the 75% mean at around $60,000. This suggests that the price range of $75,000–$95,000 may represent the bottom, aligning with the structural market conditions observed in Q3 2024.

Confirming the decrease in holder sales through exchanges, the total exchange flow (inflow + outflow) to network activity ratio provides further insight. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. explained that the chart shows a 1.5x decrease in ratio following Bitcoin’s all-time high, directly confirming that the current growth is more organic.

Bitcoin exchange flows to the network activity ratio. Source: Axel Adler Jr.

The analyst explained that, unlike previous price peaks, where a high ratio (marked by orange bars) signaled heavy selling, current levels show no such urgency, reinforcing a more stable market environment.

High profitability and reduced exchange inflows indicate diminished selling pressure from holders, enabling an improved holder’s mindset between $75,000 and $95,000. This suggests that investors viewed BTC as undervalued and not as an exit opportunity, which aligned with the broader bullish sentiment.

Related: Watch these Bitcoin price levels as BTC meets ‘decision point’

BTC data hint at cooling unrealized gains under $95K

Glassnode noted that the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, a key market sentiment indicator, has returned to its long-term mean of 1.74. Historically, this level has been a support zone (since January 2024) during consolidation phases, signaling a cooling of unrealized gains and a potential base for future growth.

Bitcoin MVRV ratio bands. Source: X.com

Similarly, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio is neutral at 0.5 with Bitcoin priced at $94,400, in contrast to its overbought signal when BTC was previously at this level in February 2025.

This shift in market dynamics and evolving holder behavior indicates that the current cohort of profitable investors may be less inclined to sell at these levels. This could further strengthen the bullish case of the present market structure.

Bitcoin NVT golden cross. Source: CryptoQuant

Related: BTC dominance due ‘collapse’ at 71%: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Key points:

Bitcoin is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears at the $95,000 level.

Solid buying by spot Bitcoin ETF investors last week signals a positive shift in investor sentiment. 

Select altcoins have held their support levels, increasing the likelihood of a short-term up move.

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below the breakout level of $95,000 on May 4, indicating profit booking at higher levels. The bulls tried to push the price back above $95,000 on May 5 but are facing stiff resistance from the bears. 

Glassnode senior researcher CryptoVizArt said in a post on X that Bitcoin maintaining above $93,000 was very surprising and also risky as the rally to the $93,000 to $96,000 range “pushed the profit-taking volume above the statistical levels.” CryptoVizArt added that there were more than $9 in realized profits for every dollar realized in loss.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

However, a positive sign in favor of bulls is that the US-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds witnessed inflows of $1.8 billion last week, per Farside Investors data. The ETF issuers and the institutions acquired 18,644 Bitcoin last week compared to the 3,150 Bitcoin mined during the period, reported asset allocator HODL15Capital on May 4.

What are the crucial support and resistance levels to watch out for in Bitcoin and altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

S&P 500 Index price prediction

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) extended its recovery last week and rose above the 50-day simple moving average (5,575).

SPX daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day exponential moving average (5,501) has started to turn up, and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the positive territory, indicating advantage to buyers. The up move could reach 5,800, which is expected to attract strong selling by the bears. If the price turns down from 5,800, it is likely to find support at the 20-day EMA. 

Sellers will have to yank the price below the 20-day EMA to suggest that the bullish momentum is weakening. The index may drop to 5,400 and subsequently to 5,300.

US Dollar Index price prediction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) bounced off the 99 support on April 29 and reached the 20-day EMA (100.38) on May 1.

DXY daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Buyers are facing stiff resistance at the 20-day EMA, but a minor positive is that they have not ceded much ground to the bears. That improves the prospects of a break above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the index could rise to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 101.39 and then to the 50-day SMA (102.72).

This positive view will be invalidated if the price continues lower and breaks below the 99 level. That could sink the index to the critical support at 97.92.

Bitcoin price prediction

Bitcoin closed below the $95,000 support on May 4, and the bears are trying to extend the pullback to the 20-day EMA ($92,204).

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Buyers will have to fiercely defend the 20-day EMA to keep the bullish momentum intact. If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA with strength, the bulls will again try to propel the BTC/USDT pair to the psychological level of $100,000. 

Contrary to this assumption, a break and close below the 20-day EMA signals the bulls are rushing to the exit. That may sink the pair to the 50-day SMA ($86,890). A deeper pullback suggests a range formation in the near term.

Ether price prediction

Buyers have managed to sustain Ether (ETH) above the moving averages, signaling strength.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($1,771) is sloping up gradually, and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside. There is minor resistance at $1,957, but it is likely to be crossed. The ETH/USDT pair could surge to the breakdown level of $2,111, where the bears are expected to sell aggressively.

A break and close below the moving averages opens the gates for a fall to $1,537 and later to the critical support at $1,368.

XRP price prediction

XRP (XRP) remains stuck between the resistance line and the $2 support, indicating buying on dips and selling on rallies.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Both moving averages have flattened out, and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This equilibrium will tilt in favor of the bulls if they drive the price above the resistance line. The XRP/USDT pair could soar to $3, suggesting a short-term trend change.

On the contrary, a break and close below $2 will put the sellers in charge. The pair may then retest the vital support at $1.61, where the buyers are expected to step in.

BNB price prediction

BNB (BNB) slipped below the moving averages on May 4, but the bears are struggling to sustain the lower levels.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

If buyers push the price above the moving averages, it suggests buying at lower levels. The bulls will then attempt to overcome the barrier at $620. If they succeed, the BNB/USDT pair could shoot up to $644.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the moving averages, it suggests that the bears are trying to take control. There is support in the $576 to $566 zone, but if it breaks down, the pair could dive to $520.

Solana price prediction

Solana (SOL) is finding support at the 20-day EMA ($143), indicating that the bulls remain buyers on dips.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls will again attempt to thrust the price above the $153 resistance. If they manage to do that, the SOL/USDT pair could ascend to $180. Such a move brings the large $110 to $260 range into play.

If bears want to prevent the upside, they will have to swiftly pull the price below the 20-day EMA. If they do that, the pair could descend to the 50-day SMA ($133). That suggests the pair may consolidate between $110 and $153 for a while.

Related: XRP price risks 45% decline to $1.20 — Here is why

Dogecoin price prediction

Buyers have managed to keep Dogecoin (DOGE) above the moving averages but failed to start a strong rebound.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The flattish moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint suggest the DOGE/USDT pair may extend its stay inside the $0.21 to $0.14 range for some time.

If the price turns up from the moving averages, the bulls will try to push the pair to $0.21. Sellers are expected to defend the level aggressively, but if the bulls prevail, the pair could skyrocket to $0.28. Contrarily, a break below the moving averages could sink the pair to the solid support at $0.14.

Cardano price prediction

Cardano (ADA) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the moving averages.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The flattish moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above $0.75. That opens the doors for a rally to $0.83.

On the downside, a close below the moving averages tilts the advantage in favor of the bears. There is solid support at $0.58, but if the level gives way, the ADA/USDT pair could plunge to $0.50.

Sui price prediction

Sui (SUI) is attempting to bounce off the 20-day EMA ($3.09), indicating demand at lower levels.

SUI/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls will try to push the price to $3.90, which is expected to act as a stiff resistance. However, the upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory suggest that buyers have an edge. A break and close above $3.90 could catapult the SUI/USDT pair to $4.25 and later to $5.

Instead, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it signals that the bulls have given up. That may pull the price to $2.86 and then to the 50-day SMA ($2.57).

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin has historically outperformed gold, more recently by sixfold.

Gold’s climb toward $5,000 could set the stage for significant Bitcoin gains.

Weakening US dollar and rising global liquidity remain key drivers for both assets.

Gold’s march toward $5,000 per ounce and beyond has become a big topic among hard-asset bulls, including Yardeni Research’s head Ed Yardeni and billionaire investor John Paulson.

But what could happen to the price of Bitcoin (BTC), touted as “digital gold” by many, if the precious metal surges even higher?

BTC price jumped 6x last time gold rallied

Bitcoin has historically delivered far more substantial gains than gold when their markets rally concurrently.

From March 2020 to March 2022, during the Federal Reserve’s ultra-loose monetary policies, BTC’s price surged approximately 1,110%, while gold increased by only 35.5%.

XAU/USD vs. BTC/USD and Global M2 supply weekly chart. Source: TradingView

In the November 2022–November 2023 rally, coinciding with rising global money (M2) supply, gold gained about 25%, while Bitcoin jumped by 150% or nearly 6x outperformance.

Related: When gold price hits new highs, history shows ‘Bitcoin follows’ within 150 days — Analyst

Gold’s climb from its current value of around $3,265 to $5,000 will equal 50% gains. So, if history repeats, Bitcoin could grow by 300% or to a price of $285,000 per BTC.

That aligns with analyst apsk32’s projected Bitcoin price target, which is based on a power law model normalized against gold’s market cap.

Source: X/apsk32

Gold boom will push Bitcoin toward $250K — veteran fund manager

Frank Holmes, CEO of US Global Investors, sees gold heading to $6,000 during Trump’s presidential term, arguing that bullion has lagged behind the global M2 money supply surge.

He links this bold target to Trump’s tariff policies, which he believes could weaken the US dollar by around 25%, boosting gold’s appeal alongside strong central bank demand and underweight investor positioning.

Holmes predicts that Bitcoin could break through its $97,000 supply overhang and climb to $120,000–$150,000 in the near term, with a longer-term potential of reaching $250,000 as adoption accelerates.

BTC can hit $155K if gold’s lagging correlation holds

In late April, gold climbed to an all-time high of $3,500, up 33.35% year-to-date (YTD). It has corrected slightly to reach $3,237 as of May 5. In comparison, Bitcoin has risen merely 0.82% YTD.

BTC/USD and XAU/USD daily chart comparison. Source: TradingView

Some market watchers, including analyst Cryptollica, point to Bitcoin’s past behavior of following gold after a lag, suggesting a possible move toward the $155,000 level if it breaks out of its prevailing consolidation range.

BTC/USD vs XAU/USD trend comparison. Source: Cryptollica/X

Bitcoin’s 30% pullback from its record high of around $110,00 appears mild compared to past sell-offs of over 50%. This resilience strengthens its role alongside gold and raises the chance it could follow gold’s rally if market conditions improve.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.