Key takeaways:

Bitcoin market cycle tops are notoriously hard to time, but combining technical and behavioral indicators can offer strong signals.

The MVRV-Z Score, Pi Cycle Top indicator, trade volume trends, Puell Multiple, and exchange inflows accurately predict Bitcoin price cycle tops.

Bitcoin (BTC) might be approaching the final stage of its current market cycle — a dramatic final rally followed by a sharp correction and, eventually, a bear market. For many, this could be the long-awaited climax of the past four years, and major players are preparing accordingly.

Since late 2024, Bitcoin whale accumulation has surged. Glassnode data shows that the number of addresses holding over 100 BTC has jumped by almost 14%, reaching 18,200 — a level not seen since 2017. The biggest market players appear to be positioning for what could be this cycle’s final run-up.

Number of BTC addresses holding over 100 BTC. Source: Glassnode

However, riding the rally is trickier than it looks and knowing when to exit is notoriously difficult. The lure of higher price highs fuels FOMO, driving investors to buy the top, only to face painful drawdowns or even liquidations.

So, how can traders and investors spot the top before the market enters recession?

Bitcoin cycle top markers

Several technical and onchain indicators, such as MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score, Pi Cycle Top, and trading volume trends, have historically been reliable in signaling when Bitcoin is nearing its peak.

The MVRV-Z score compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value and adjusts for volatility. A high Z-score suggests Bitcoin is significantly overvalued relative to its historical cost basis. When this indicator is at a historical high, the ensuing downward trend in Bitcoin prices is likely.

The Pi Cycle Top tracks BTC price dynamics using moving averages. When the 111-day moving average (111-SMA) crosses above twice the 350-day average (350-SMAx2), it signals overheating. In other words, when the short-term trend catches up to the long-term trajectory, a market top is in.

Historically, all previous Bitcoin bull runs started with a notable surge in MVRV Z-score, and ended with 111-SMA crossing the longer-term trend.

BTC: Pi Cycle Top + MVRV Z-score. Source: Marie Poteriaieva, Glassnode

Additionally, lower trading volumes during price increases can be a warning sign, often signaling weakening momentum and potential for a reversal. On-balance volume (OBV), which registers cumulative volume flow, is a valuable metric for tracking this process. When OBV diverges from the price action, it is often an early reversal signal. 

The second leg of the 2021 bull run was a great example. While BTC price was hitting higher highs of $68,000 (compared to the previous all-time high of $63,170), trading volumes moved in a different direction, decreasing from 710,000 BTC to 628,000 BTC. This created a bearish divergence between price and volume, suggesting that fewer market participants were supporting the rally — a classic sign of waning momentum.

BTC/USD 1-day, OBV. Source: Marie Poteriaieva, TradingView

Profit-taking metrics

As market cycle tops approach, long-term holders and Bitcoin miners often start locking in profits. Some valuable metrics that can track it are the Puell Multiple and exchange flows.

The Puell Multiple Indicator looks at miners’ revenue relative to its 365-day average. High readings indicate miners may start selling aggressively, and are often seen near market tops.

Large inflows to exchanges are usually signs of distribution, as investors prepare to sell their coins. 

BTC total transfer volume to exchanges + Puell Multiple. Source: Marie Poteriaieva, Glassnode

Individually, these indicators can mark various shifts in market trends. Combined, they often align with cycle tops.

Related: Sorry bears — Bitcoin analysis dismisses $107K BTC price double top

The 15% rule

Historic price activity observations might come in handy, too. Crypto market analyst Cole Garner shared his exit playbook based on whales’ behavior. His roadmap includes three steps:

Euphoria. Bitcoin moves vertically for weeks, with massive $10,000+ daily candles.

Whiplash. Bitcoin experiences its sharpest correction of the bull cycle. The curved parabolic trendline that’s supported the rally is broken — a clear signal that the top is likely in. Meanwhile, altcoins and meme tokens may continue pumping a little longer.

Complacency. Measure 15% below Bitcoin’s all-time high. That’s the sell zone. Order books on major exchanges often show a wall of sell orders around this level — a likely institutional exit point.

According to Garner, the 15% (or 16%) rule works not only in crypto but in traditional markets as well.

Historical blow off-tops: BTC, ETH, gold, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Broadvision, 3D Systems. Source: Cole Garner

No single indicator can pinpoint the exact moment to exit, especially in a shifting macro environment. But when multiple signals align, they become hard to ignore. The final leg of a Bitcoin bull market is thrilling, but knowing when the music might stop is key to locking in profits.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Key points:

Ethereum holders are back in profit, increasing chances for a rally to $3,000 and beyond.

Ether sell pressure risk exists at $2,800, where 2.27 million ETH could be sold.

Ether’s recent surge to $2,700 on May 14 pushed its value above its realized price, implying that the average holder of ETH is “now back in an unrealized profit,” according to Glassnode.

Ethereum trades above its cost basis

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that Ether’s (ETH) price has risen by more than 52% to a three-month high of $2,700 on May 14 from $1,800 on May 7, fueled by excitement around the Pectra upgrade.

This rally has seen ETH rise above its realized price or cost basis, currently at $1,900, paving the way for a potential rally to $3,000 or higher. 

ETH holders returning to profit after unrealized losses “provides meaningful financial relief for many holders, signaling a bullish outlook,” Glassnode explained in its latest report.

Historically, during the early phase of a rally, holders in profit provided upward momentum by holding firm and attracting new investors. 

Further analysis of the cost basis of active market participants indicated the “strength of this upward move” as the price moved above its True Market Mean, or the Active-Investor Price,  at $2,400. This indicates fresh capital inflows into the market at higher prices. 

As Cointelegraph reported, holding above $2,400 was crucial to ensure a potential $3,000 retest.

Ethereum: Key pricing levels. Source: Glassnode

Despite Ether’s recent outperformance, Glassnode analysts noted that the Active Realized Price still sits overhead around $2,900 and remains a key level that must be “decisively reclaimed to support continued improvement in investor confidence” in the altcoin.

The market intelligence firm added:

“The $2,400–$2,900 range remains a crucial area for Ethereum, acting as both a resistance zone and a potential breakout level essential for maintaining upward momentum.”

Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades also said that ETH price must “convincingly break” out of the $2,400-$2,600 range before rising higher to confront high-timeframe resistance between $2,800 and $2,850. 

“Not looking to do much until we at least convincingly break out of this local range.ETH/USD four-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades

2.27 million ETH at $2,800 could trigger a sell-off

According to Ether’s cost basis distribution data, investors hold approximately 2.27 million ETH at an average cost basis of $2,767, creating a potential resistance zone. This concentration suggests many investors may sell at break-even, potentially stalling Ether’s upward momentum.

Ethereum cost basis distribution chart. Source: Glassnode

From a technical perspective, ETH must flip the $3,000 resistance level into support to target higher highs above $4,000.

But first, the ETH/USD pair must close above the $2,600-$2,800 range, where the 100-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA) currently sit. ETH price dropped below this level in February, driven by risk-off sentiment following Trump’s tariff measures. 

ETH/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

​​One positive catalyst for the bulls could be continued demand from spot Ethereum ETFs. Ether ETFs registered $100.7 million in net inflows in the last three days, per Farside Investors’ data.

Meanwhile, the bears will attempt to keep the $2,600 resistance in place to increase the likelihood of pulling the price lower. The immediate target is below the $2,400 level, or the 200-day SMA.

Below $2,400, the next key area of interest remains between $2,200 and the psychological level at $2,000. Reaching $1,800 would erase all the gains made after the Pectra upgrade.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Key takeaways:

The Bitcoin Quantile Model shows “heat” with price on the verge of an “acceleration phase,” echoing Q4 2024 when BTC embarked on a 45% post-election rally.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has formed a new intraday high on each daily candle this week, with the crypto asset slowly grinding toward a new all-time high. In line with its current trajectory, 21st Capital co-founder Sina noted that Bitcoin is approaching a pivotal moment around the $108,000 level. 

The Bitcoin Quantile Model update shows that BTC’s market reflects the same “heat” that was present after President Trump’s post-election rally and the spot ETF-driven highs during Q4 2024. The model, which uses quantile regression to map Bitcoin’s price phases on a logarithmic scale, indicates the cryptocurrency is in the Transition Zone, a critical juncture before the Acceleration Phase. Throughout Q4, 2024, Bitcoin rallied by 45% after entering a price discovery period above $74,500. 

Bitcoin Quantile Model. Source: X.com

As illustrated in the chart, once it breaks into the “Acceleration” Phase, it could trigger BTC’s next leg or the mid-phase, typically between the 33% and 66% range. Based on the model, BTC is expected to progressively target price levels of $130,000 and $163,000 in the coming months. 

However, anonymous Bitcoin analyst apsk32 believed a price target above $200,000 is a “reasonable” expectation for 2025. Basing the projection on Bitcoin’s “power curve,” the analyst noted that BTC’s position relative to gold has significantly improved since April. 

From a technical standpoint, this view is supported by the recent convergence of the Sharpe ratios for Bitcoin and gold, suggesting that the two hard assets now offer comparable risk-to-reward profiles to their investors. 

Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer shed light on this development, recommending a 4:1 goal-to-Bitcoin ratio from an allocation perspective. 

Related: Bitcoin ‘blow-off top’ set at $128K with new all-time highs in sight

Strong Bitcoin volumes “final straw” before new highs 

Crypto researcher Aylo analyzed BTC’s historical price action when the crypto asset consolidates near its all-time high level. In an X post, the analyst explained, 

“The data shows when BTC gets close to its previous ATH during a strong, accelerating trend with high momentum, it has historically broken out to new ATHs within a short time (days to weeks).”

However, weaker trends have led to stalls or retraces between March and May 2024. Currently, Bitcoin exhibits a strong trend but lacks the necessary trading volume, which remains the final straw to confirm a breakout, a factor that could delay upward movement.

Alyo added that for Bitcoin to break its all-time highs, daily trading volume should exceed the previous 10 days, be at least 1.5 times the 20-day average, and ideally sustain a 3-day increase while the price holds steady or rises.

Data from CryptoQuant has reinforced Aylo’s concerns about trading volume. On May 21, retail investor demand for Bitcoin, defined as wallets buying/selling between $0 and $10,000, remained low at just 3.2% over 30 days, despite BTC trading within $2,000 of its all-time high.

Bitcoin’s retail investor volumes. Source: CryptoQuant

For comparison, bullish retail demand accounted for approximately 30% in December 2024—nearly 10 times higher than current levels—even though Bitcoin was well below, at a price range of $96,000 to $97,000.

Related: How high can Bitcoin price go?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.