Key points:

Bitcoin seeks consolidation after rapid gains as stocks and the US dollar surge on US-China trade deal news.

Nearby order book liquidity forms potential targets for traders, which now include $102,000.

A classic moving average retest suggests that a new all-time high should result.

Bitcoin (BTC) stuck to $104,000 at the May 12 Wall Street open as markets shifted on US-China trade deal news.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin surfs US-China trade deal reactions

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD consolidating after hitting its highest levels since late January.

The US and China agreed to slash reciprocal trade tariffs on the day, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index to gain around 3%.

US dollar strength also benefited as a result, with the US dollar index (DXY) hitting one-month highs.

US dollar index (DXY) 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“The last time US tariffs on China were this high, the S&P 500 was ~200 points lower, 4 Fed rate cuts were expected in 2025, and Wall Street was calling for a recession,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of ongoing analysis on X. 

“Sentiment is everything.”US tariffs on China. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Bitcoin thus adopted the middle ground between major assets on the day as gold dropped precipitously to $3,208 per ounce, nearing month-to-date lows.

“BTC Swept most nearby liquidity above after chopping around the $103K-$105K area for a few days,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades told X followers alongside a chart of exchange order book liquidity from monitoring resource CoinGlass. 

“Below keep an eye on the ~$102K region as that’s a pretty dense area in terms of liquidation clusters. Could be a good level for some action. Depending on the reaction there you can reassess.”BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

CoinGlass data showed increasing bids around the $103,000 mark after the Wall Street open.

New BTC price record “in the making”

Continuing, fellow trader CrypNuevo was among those doubling down on a longer-term bull thesis for BTC price action.

Related: Is Bitcoin about to go parabolic? BTC price targets include $160K next

BTC/USD, he noted, had conducted a successful retest of the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA).

Currently at $80,300, the 50-week EMA has functioned as a springboard for new all-time highs in recent years.

“We got the 1W50EMA retest and, consequently, the next leg up,” CrypNuevo explained in an X thread on May 11. 

“Every previous time that we saw this structure, we made a new high so the trend signals a new ATH in the making.”BTC/USDT 1-week chart with 50 EMA. Source: CrypNuevo/X

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on a classic bull market breakout signal on weekly timeframes in the form of a cross on the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Opinion by: Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly

Is there a catch for Bitcoin hodlers, with the asset’s price up over 600,000% since the beginning of 2013? 

Perhaps — if governments keep waking up to Bitcoin’s value, the whole “you only pay tax when you sell” mantra could soon be a thing of the past.

What if a wealth tax is the answer for revenue-hungry tax agencies with no time to lose? It’s a yearly tax on a person’s total net worth — cash, investments, property and other assets — minus any debts, applied whether or not those assets are sold or generating income. The idea is to boost public revenue and curb inequality, mainly by taxing the ultra-rich. A wealth tax takes a clip off what you own, not what you earn.

Countries such as Belgium, Norway and Switzerland have had wealth taxes baked into their tax systems for ages, yet some of the world’s biggest economies — like the US, Australia and France — have largely steered clear. 

That might be changing. More governments are eyeing wealth taxes for crypto. In December 2024, French Senator Sylvie Vermeillet took it a step further, suggesting Bitcoin (BTC) be labeled “unproductive,” which would mean taxing its gains every year — whether or not it’s ever sold. 

Yep, every asset holder’s favorite word is unrealized capital gains tax. It would be naive to assume other countries are not thinking about the same idea. 

With Bitcoin’s significant gains and industry executives such as ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood eyeing a $1.5-million price tag by 2030, I’d bet a magic 8-ball would say, “Signs point to yes.”

The growing global interest in wealth tax

It might seem far-fetched, but it is hard to ignore the gains. The average long-term Bitcoin holder is already sitting on significant profits.

The incentive is obvious. Switzerland’s wealth tax goes up to 1% of a portfolio’s value, and governments know there is plenty to collect.

Countries catch on — sooner or later. Consider how capital gains tax became the norm.

The US introduced capital gains tax in 1913, the UK jumped on board 52 years later in 1965, and Australia followed in 1985. 

Governments likely considering the wealth tax

Governments are likely entertaining the idea — whether they admit it or not. If any country seriously considers it, Germany could be a prime candidate, even though it scrapped its wealth tax back in 1997.

Recent: Ukraine floats 23% tax on some crypto income, exemptions for stablecoins

In July 2024, offloading 50,000 seized BTC at $58,000 might have seemed like a smart move for the German government, but when Bitcoin hit $100,000 just months later in December, it became clear they left a fortune on the table. 

In retrospect, a costly mistake…

Will this be remembered as a blunder on par with Gordon Brown selling half of the UK’s gold reserves at $275 an ounce? 

Imposing such a rule on the wealthy comes with obvious risks.

To understand the real effect of taxation on a country, just follow the money — specifically, where millionaires are moving. Recent data shows that high-net-worth individuals are leaving countries like the United Kingdom in droves, heading for tax-friendly havens like Dubai.

The potential repercussions of a wealth tax

Will nations risk losing these individuals to tap into unrealized gains on Bitcoin and other assets?

Bitcoin is volatile and full of unknowns. While some events could lead to massive losses, governments may still push forward with policies that ultimately drive away millionaires, only to realize the trade-off wasn’t worth it. 

Conversely, US President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve — a clear nod to the hodl mentality. No doubt, this has other nations considering a similar move.

If nations are embracing the hodl mindset, could that mean wealth taxes are off the table in those countries? Only time will tell.

One thing is sure: Bitcoin hodlers have amassed enough wealth to put themselves on the radar of tax authorities. Whether this sparks fundamental policy changes or just political grandstanding, the crypto community won’t sit back quietly.

Opinion by: Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

A 90-day tariff agreement between the US and China may set the stage for a broader recovery of stock and cryptocurrency markets, as investors look ahead to a potential tax relief package.

The White House announced on May 12 that the two countries will reduce their respective tariffs to 10% for an initial 90-day period beginning May 14 — a 24% cut from current levels.

Speaking at a news conference in Geneva, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both governments are aligned on avoiding further economic decoupling.

“The consensus from both delegations is neither side wants to be decoupled,” Bessent said. “What has occurred with these very high tariffs was an equivalent of an embargo, and neither side wants that. We do want trade. We want more balance in trade.”

Joint statement on US-China meeting in Geneva. Source: The White House

Related: Bitcoin treasury firms driving $200T hyperbitcoinization — Adam Back

The constructive tone of the negotiations, along with the 90-day suspension of additional tariffs, removes the risk of “sudden re-escalation,” which may help altcoins and traditional stock markets follow Bitcoin’s (BTC) price recovery, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen.

“Bitcoin is already trading close to its all-time highs,” Barthere told Cointelegraph. “However, with the latest easing in trade tensions, it now appears that altcoins, US equities, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) are well-positioned for a catch-up rally.”

She noted that Bitcoin has outperformed risk assets in recent months due to its insulation from tariff-related risks.

“I also expect the US dollar to perform strongly against prior safe-haven currencies such as the euro, Swiss franc and Japanese yen, reflecting improved global risk sentiment,” Barthere added.

Nansen previously predicted a 70% chance for crypto and stocks to find their bottom by June, with their price recovery depending on the outcome of trade negotiations.

Related: Bitcoin ETFs, gov’t adoption to drive BTC to $1M by 2029: Finance Redefined

Tax relief could amplify rally

Bitcoin is currently 4.8% away from recapturing its all-time high of over $109,800 recorded in January 2025, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.

BTC/USD, 1-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph

“There is potential for risk assets to move beyond the January peak levels if we see a generous tax cut package materialize,” Barthere told Cointelegraph, adding:

“This would need to go beyond merely extending the expiring tax cuts, and include additional income tax reductions as well as corporate tax cuts on top.”

She noted that Bessent hinted such a package could be unveiled by mid-July, which would act as a “significant additional catalyst” for the markets.

The constructive trade negotiations, paired with emerging technical chart patterns, have spurred analyst calls for a Bitcoin rally to $150,000, depending on the outcome of an emerging bull flag pattern on the weekly chart.

Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19