Crypto and equities traders were hopeful for a last-minute solution that would prevent the US from enacting 104% tariffs on Chinese goods entering the United States, but in a press conference, the White House confirmed that the tariffs would start on April 9. Markets deteriorated when Peter Navarro, trade adviser to US President Donald Trump, stated that tariffs were “not a negotiation.”

As a result, the S&P 500 index closed on April 8 with a 1.6% loss, reversing earlier gains of 4%. This downturn has left traders wondering whether Bitcoin (BTC) can regain its bullish momentum amid worsening macroeconomic conditions.

Spiraling US debt issues remain, paving the way for Bitcoin gains

Between April 2 and April 7, the S&P 500 index dropped by 14.7%, causing panic among Bitcoin holders and forcing a retest of the $75,000 level—the lowest in more than five months.

S&P 500 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

During an appearance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on April 7, President Trump reportedly said his goal was to “reset the table” on trade. He added that “there can be permanent tariffs, and there could also be negotiations because there are things that we need beyond tariffs.” Amid this uncertainty, IPOs and mergers have been delayed, while leveraged loan deals and bond sales were sidelined, according to Yahoo Finance.

It becomes clear that the stock market is likely to rally if trade war risks subside. Economists have cautioned that tariffs could trigger inflation and significantly raise the chances of an economic recession, according to Reuters. However, assessing the impact on Bitcoin’s price remains a challenging task. This is because some investors see the cryptocurrency’s fixed monetary system as a safeguard against the continuous expansion of global fiat currency supplies.

Short-term correlations hurt BTC, but possible interest rate cuts could turn the tide

In the short term, the positive correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market is expected to persist. Nonetheless, the US government’s fiscal challenges present a potential opportunity for Bitcoin’s price to grow. On April 8, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.28%, following a brief dip to 3.90% on April 7. This increase suggests that investors are demanding higher returns to hold these assets.

US Dollar Index (DXY, left) vs. US 10-year Treasury yield (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

The rising cost of rolling over the $9 trillion in federal government debt set to mature within the next 12 months is expected to increase fiscal imbalance and weaken the US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has diverged from US Treasury yields, falling to 103.0 on April 8 from 104.2 on March 31. This situation could potentially support Bitcoin’s price—a sentiment shared by BlackRock CEO Larry Fink in his March 31 letter to investors.

Related: Weaker yuan is ‘bullish for BTC’ as Chinese capital flocks to crypto — Bybit CEO

Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley’s chief US economist, stated in a client note on April 8: “We think the right answer is for the Fed to wait in its current stance for longer,” as reported by CNBC. According to Morgan Stanley’s updated forecast, the US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% until March 2026, adding that “only a recession would change the calculus” and “a recession could mean earlier and larger up-front cuts.”

Bitcoin’s momentum is likely to turn positive as traders realize that the US Federal Reserve has limited tools to avoid a recession without risking inflation. While predicting the exact timing of a breakout remains uncertain, prolonged delays in resolving trade war issues could drive investors toward scarce assets like Bitcoin, especially amid fears of potential US dollar devaluation.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

RedStone, a blockchain oracle provider, has introduced a push-based oracle on MegaETH to tackle latency issues that challenge the efficiency of onchain trading.

According to a spokesperson for RedStone, the new oracle can push new prices onchain every 2.4 milliseconds. Initially debuting on MegaETH, an Ethereum layer-2 network, the product may be rolled out to additional chains in the future.

RedStone said its oracle sources prices from centralized exchanges and delivers them directly to applications or smart contracts via nodes that operate natively on the MegaETH chain.

This “co-location” strategy minimizes latency by eliminating delays typically caused by the physical distance between servers. In the future, RedStone also plans to include price feeds from decentralized exchanges.

Oracles compatible with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) are becoming more popular. According to Alchemy, there are currently 12 decentralized oracle networks operating on Ethereum.

Oracles can make money through data usage fees, licenses, staking rewards and node incentives. The current market capitalization for oracle tokens sits at $10.2 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Related: Trump’s World Liberty Financial taps Chainlink as oracle provider

DeFi growth spurs further rise of oracles

Decentralized finance’s total value locked onchain nears $88 billion as of April 8, after rising 116% in 2024, according to DefiLlama. Ethereum remains the top blockchain for DeFi applications, with $47.8 billion locked in the network, followed by Solana with $6.1 billion in DeFi TVL.

DeFi TVL over time. Source: DefiLlama

The rise of DeFi has intensified competition in the oracle market — an essential component for the functioning of decentralized applications. Price oracles feed real-time market data into smart contracts, acting as a bridge between blockchains and the real world.

Popular players in the oracle space include Chainlink and Pyth Network. In October 2024, Pyth flipped Chainlink in 30-day volume, reaching $36 billion in transactions. The protocol offers a pull-based model that provides data upon request, thus making it optimized for high-volume activities.

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

Cboe BZX Exchange has asked United States regulators for clearance to list an exchange-traded fund (ETF) backed by Sui (SUI), the native token of the Sui Network, public filings show. 

The request submitted on April 8 must be reviewed and approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before the exchange can list any shares of the fund.

If approved, the ETF — issued by asset manager Canary Capital — would be the first in the country to hold SUI. The token has a market capitalization of roughly $6.5 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Sui is a blockchain network designed to provide users with a more streamlined onboarding experience — similar to traditional Web3 applications. It is built using Move, a smart contract framework based on the Rust programming language. Sui has approximately $1.1 billion in total value locked (TVL), according to DefiLlama.

Sui Network has roughly $1.1 billion in TVL. Source: DeFiLlama

Related: Canary files for PENGU ETF

Canary, which specializes in crypto ETFs, submitted its own S-1 regulatory filing for the SUI fund in March. 

Since 2024, Canary has filed for several proposed US crypto ETFs, including funds holding Litecoin (LTC), XRP (XRP), Hedera (HBAR), Axelar (AXL) and Pengu (PENGU). 

Cboe BZX has also submitted numerous filings seeking to list crypto ETFs this year. In March, the exchange filed to list Solana (SOL) ETFs issued by Franklin Templeton and Fidelity. 

Dozens of altcoin ETFs

Since US President Donald Trump took office on Jan. 20, the SEC has acknowledged dozens of new altcoin ETF filings. 

Proposed ETFs include funds holding native layer-1 tokens such as Solana (SOL) and SUI, as well as memecoins such as Dogecoin (DOGE) and Official Trump (TRUMP).

However, investors’ demand for altcoin ETFs may be weaker than for funds holding core cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), according to Katalin Tischhauser, crypto bank Sygnum’s research head. 

“[T]here is all this frothy excitement in the market about these ETFs coming, and no one can point to where substantial demand is going to come from,” Tischhauser told Cointelegraph. 

Magazine: Memecoins are ded — But Solana ‘100x better’ despite revenue plunge