Bitcoin (BTC) starts the first full week of May with yearly open support in focus ahead of a key US economic policy decision.

BTC price action attempts to hold the yearly open as support after some downside at the weekly close, but bullish perspectives remain intact.

The US Federal Reserve interest rate decision is the key macro event of the week, with Chair Jerome Powell tipped to “move markets.”

Jobless claims and Coinbase earnings add to a mixed bag of potential volatility triggers as recession talk gets louder.

Bitcoin dominance hits 65% for the first time in over four years, but analysis thinks its days are numbered.

Bitcoin “FOMO” is still waiting in the wings as sentiment flips positive.

Bitcoin traders stay bullish with $93,500 intact

Bitcoin saw some sell pressure into the May 4 weekly close, reaching lows of $93,350 on Bitstamp before rebounding, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Liquidity had built up close to the spot price, both up and down, with bids getting partially filled due to the dip.

Now, the latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows the largest nearby cluster of ask liquidity at $96,420.

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Popular trader CrypNuevo outlined a potential short-term bull case in his latest outlook on X.

“In the case of long triggers, I like these two setups: Either a new local high ($98k) where we can see some LTF liquidations after a reclaim of the previous range highs (upper yellow line), or from much lower from the 1D50EMA retest if it’s successful,” he wrote.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades eyed a new “gap” to the upside on CME Group’s Bitcoin futures markets as a potential price magnet.

“These gaps have generally been getting closed within 1-3 days recently so it can be useful to keep an eye on it,” part of an X post read, with the gap at $97,000.

BTC/USDT 15-minute chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Zooming out, however, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital focused on downside support at $93,500 — Bitcoin’s yearly open.

“Bitcoin has rejected from the Lower High resistance (black diagonal),” he explained alongside an accompanying weekly BTC/USD chart.

“Going forward, Bitcoin will need to hold the $93.5k Range Low to fully confirm a reclaim of the Range.”BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Separate analysis suggested that Bitcoin could form a series of higher highs with rejections and support retests at key price points, ultimately breaking out to new all-time highs.

#BTC

Bitcoin Price Discovery Roadmap

Bitcoin is trying to finalise its First Price Discovery Correction (green) to transition into its Second Price Discovery Uptrend (red)

(Prices and time horizons are not to scale)$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/yfY3h60Ywy pic.twitter.com/yahXUIpVkY

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 30, 2025

FOMC week puts spotlight on Fed

In contrast to last week, the coming days are dominated by one macroeconomic event in particular: the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates.

The May 7 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is being closely watched by traders in crypto and beyond.

The circumstances surrounding the meeting are unusual — the Fed remains hawkish on the economy, seeking to hold rates steady in the face of rising economic risks and talk of recession. The ongoing US trade war has added to concerns that inflationary pressures may return, bolstering the Fed’s stance.

Despite this, US President Donald Trump has been vocal about the need for rates to come down, personally singling out Fed Chair Jerome Powell on social media on several occasions.

What happens at the meeting will thus form a clear signal over what traders can expect further into the year.

FOMC: This Wednesday, the Fed will decide whether to cut, hike, or keep rates unchanged.

What’s your prediction? pic.twitter.com/cUkhGyHdIR

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) May 5, 2025

“All eyes are on Fed Chair Powell this week after recent pressure from Trump to cut rates,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized on X.

While tensions over the decision are palpable, markets nonetheless see little chance of a surprise move by officials. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the odds of a rate cut at just 5.2% as of May 5.

Fed target rate probabilities for May 7 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Over the weekend, Cointelegraph reported on expectations regarding Bitcoin’s reaction to the meeting. In general, crypto and stocks tend to fall in advance of FOMC dates as traders hedge their bets over the outcome and the Fed’s perspective on future policy.

“If a standard pre-FOMC correction takes place, then the go-to zone for entries is between $91.5-92.5K,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe told X followers in part of a recent post on the topic.

BTC/USDT chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Trading resource Material Indicators added that Powell’s language at the FOMC press conference would “move markets” regardless of the rate decision.

Bitcoin faces booming recession bets

Beyond FOMC, other macro topics on the radar for crypto and risk assets include the initial jobless claims report on May 8, as well as earnings from major US crypto exchange Coinbase.

Bitcoin has become increasingly sensitive to US employment data in recent months, making a major divergence from expectations a potential source of volatility.

While the labor market has stayed resilient to threats such as the ongoing US trade war, reports of the economy entering a period of “stagflation” or even recession are increasing.

“US consumers’ recession expectations are skyrocketing: Americans’ perceived likelihood of a US recession over the next 12 months rose to 72% in April, the highest in 2 years. Since November 2024, this percentage has surged by 8 points,” Kobeissi noted.

Data from other consumer sources, such as prediction service Kalshi, echoes that sentiment.

Source: Kalshi

“Such a pessimistic view of the economy and financial situation will likely lead to more pullback in consumer spending,” Kobeissi concluded. 

“All signs point to an economic slowdown.”US consumer recession expectations. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic” on May 4, trading firm Mosaic Asset referenced last week’s Q1 GDP miss as “the latest sign that tariffs and trade wars are delivering a major hit to the economy.”

“Evidence that the economy is holding up against the turmoil and uncertainty caused by trade war headlines is helping the S&P 500 to recover most of the selloff following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs,” it nonetheless acknowledged.

Since Trump’s tariff-driven “Liberation Day” on April 2, Bitcoin is up by around 15%.

Bitcoin dominance starts “final countdown”

In crypto circles, anticipation of the genuine start of the next altcoin rally is increasing.

Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap reached 65% over the weekend, marking its highest level since early 2021.

Bitcoin crypto market cap dominance 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The rapid dominance increase over the past two years reflects frustrating conditions for altcoin investors, with attention focusing on the largest altcoin, Ether (ETH), in particular.

ETH/BTC recently traded near levels not seen since 2019, with even a modest turnaround leading traders to bet on the start of a longer trend inflection.

Bitcoin dominance crashes.

ETH/BTC starts to pump.

Then altseason starts.

Any questions? pic.twitter.com/SOuVWx7nLK

— Mister Crypto (@misterrcrypto) May 4, 2025

“Bitcoin Dominance is now in the process of positioning itself for what will most likely be its final leg in its Macro Uptrend before a major collapse,” Rekt Capital predicted in an X update on May 1.

“The road to 71% continues on successful retest of 64%. But it is the Final Countdown.”Bitcoin crypto market cap dominance 1-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Rekt Capital previously observed that 71% marks long-term tops for Bitcoin dominance. The last “altseason,” he argued earlier this year, ended in 2024.

Some, however, see the latest dominance rise diverging from historical norms. For Thomas Fahrer, co-founder of crypto reviews portal Apollo, this is due to increasing institutional demand for BTC.

“This cycle is different because when Blackrock & Saylor buy Bitcoin they just hold it. They don’t swap them for alt coins,” he wagered last week, referring to ongoing purchases by the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, as well as business technology firm Strategy.

Bitcoin sentiment shifts from “ideal buy time”

As the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hovers in “neutral” territory, analysis is reiterating the risks of “FOMO” returning to the market.

Related: Bitcoin price cools going into Fed rate hike week, HYPE, AAVE, RNDR, FET still look bullish

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

In its latest market update on May 1, research firm Santiment revealed a turnaround in social media user expectations for BTC price performance.

“We can see that social media was making lower price calls ($10K–$69K) during the stretch between Apr 6–18, 2025,” it wrote about the environment after Liberation Day. 

“This was the ideal buy time. After prices eventually hit a temporary plateau at the end of April, high price calls ($100K–$159K) are now greatly exceeding lower calls.”

Santiment previously warned that “FOMO” among new investors may hamper Bitcoin’s attempts to preserve higher prices for longer.

“Overall levels of discussions toward Bitcoin remain quite steady, currently at about 25% of all asset topics,” it now reports, noting that positive commentary is gaining prevalence.

BTC price prediction data. Source: Santiment/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The Australian crypto industry has called on the newly reelected Labor government to urgently make digital asset legislation a top priority to ensure Australia doesn’t fall further behind global markets.

The incumbent Australian Labor Party was returned in a landslide on May 3, picking up 54.9% of the two-party-preferred vote, against the Liberal and National Parties on 45.1%. Both parties went to the election promising crypto law reform, but only the opposition pledged to deliver draft legislation within 100 days.

Joy Lam, Binance’s head of global regulatory and APAC legal, said the exchange has been consulting with Treasury officials since late 2023 about its proposed legislation, and it was now time for action.

“Timing is really quite critical now because obviously it’s something that has been discussed and kicked around for quite a few years,” she told Cointelegraph.

Coinbase managing director for APAC John O’Loghlen said the reelected Albanese Government has the “opportunity and the responsibility to move quickly on this issue” and called for a Crypto-Asset Taskforce to be established within its first 100 days “with the aim of bringing forward legislation that protects consumers, promotes innovation, and stops the exodus of talent and capital to other markets.”

Reelected Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Source: Anthony Albanese

BTC Markets CEO Caroline Bowler said that “beyond the political implications, this result sets the stage for meaningful progress in Australia’s approach to digital asset regulation.”

Lam noted that the UK released its draft regulations last week, stablecoin bills are moving forward in the US, and the EU has already implemented its MiCA legislation.

“So there’s a very clear shift. Everyone’s moving towards providing the regulatory framework that is needed for the industry to develop in a sustainable way. So time is really of the essence now.”

Draft crypto legislation within months

Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ office told Cointelegraph that exposure draft legislation would be released sometime this year for consultation, and any legislated reforms would be “phased in over time to minimize disruptions to existing businesses.”

Although the Treasury has draft legislation on “regulating digital asset platforms” and “payments system modernization” scheduled for release by the end of June, Lam isn’t confident. “I don’t know whether this quarter specifically is still sort of the timeline,” she said.

Related: Australian election will bring pro-crypto laws either way

While the ALP has been attacked by some over not taking any action in its first term in government, that may actually have resulted in a better outcome than legislation that took its cues from the approach of Joe Biden’s administration, which took a hard line on banks dealing with cryptocurrency and viewed most coins as securities. 

Industry figures report a noticeable evolution in the government’s approach to crypto between when proposals were first put out for consultation at the end of 2023 and when the Treasury released its much more positive “Statement on Developing an innovative Australian digital asset industry” in March this year.

Australia Votes running tally on the Australian election. Source: ABC

The statement sets out key priorities, such as using the existing Australian Financial Services License (AFSL) regime to underpin the regulation of Digital Asset Platforms and payment stablecoins. It’s focused on the safe custody of client assets by centralized providers and sidesteps issues around decentralized finance platforms. 

Lam welcomed the use of the AFSL regime. “Obviously, we don’t need to reinvent the wheel,” she said. “It’s something that people know and understand. It’s a pretty sensible move, and it’s also going to be much easier for regulators.”

Tokenization and sandbox

The government will also review the Enhanced Regulatory Sandbox, which aims to provide space for innovative digital asset startups to grow free of red tape. The statement also highlights opportunities with tokenization.

Lam said the change in emphasis showed the government has been listening to the industry. 

“It reflects the industry feedback that they would have received in 2023 as a result of the consultation, as well as the changing landscape because obviously it’s been evolving pretty quickly internationally,” Lam said.

“They do have the benefit now of looking at what has worked and hasn’t worked in other jurisdictions, and really building on those lessons.”

Dea Markovy, policy director at Fireblocks, told Cointelegraph that “a lot of the groundwork and research is done” and it was looking broadly positive.

“Of course, a lot of details are still to come around Australia’s Digital Asset Platforms (DAPs) regime. What is significant here is the willingness of the Government to cut through the complexity and uncertainty on crypto intermediaries licensing.” 

The securities regulator ASIC released its own crypto regulations proposals (INFO 225) in December, and feedback from those consultations will help inform the government’s new legislation. 

“In essence, it details how different token issuances and crypto intermediation will fit into Australia’s existing securities legislation, providing for a transition period,” explained Markovy.

The draft guidance suggests NFTs, in-game assets and memecoins are not financial products — the local equivalent of a “security” — while a yield-bearing stablecoin or a gold-backed token probably are.

The Treasury statement also highlighted issues with debanking. Lam said that simply regulating the industry would go a long way toward solving the issue.

“What we really want from governments and regulators is that clean licensing framework, because that goes a long way to mitigating the risk and giving the banks the comfort that they need,” she said. “And then, there’s probably going to need to be some additional guidance given to banks.”

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Early Bitcoin entrepreneur Charlie Shrem says he’s working on bringing back the Bitcoin faucet — a website that hands out Bitcoin to whoever solves CAPTCHA tasks, normally used to distinguish humans from machines.

Shrem shared his new Bitcoin (BTC) faucet website — 21million.com — in a May 4 X post, which mimics the first-ever Bitcoin CAPTCHA page created by early Bitcoin innovator Gavin Andresen back in 2010.

The 21million.com website currently displays a screenshot of a CAPTCHA task and a box to enter a receiving Bitcoin address, which was not functional at the time of writing. 

Shrem’s Bitcoin faucet website also shows that there are 0 Bitcoin available to claim.

Like Andresen’s old website, Shrem’s page explains what Bitcoin is and how to receive Bitcoin.

Charlie Shrem’s Bitcoin faucet website. Source: 21million.com

“What’s the catch?” According to Shrem, there is no catch. “I want Bitcoin to be successful, so I created this little service to give you a few coins to start with.”

When asked whether Shrem is “vibe coding” the project or receiving external assistance, he responded: “Vibe coded! It’s a lot of fun.” Vibe coding relies on artificial intelligence and prompting to write code.

Source: Charlie Shrem

Bitcoin faucets assisted Bitcoin adoption in the early days

Bitcoin faucets were key in spreading awareness about the cryptocurrency and facilitating its adoption in the early 2010s.

Andresen’s Bitcoin Faucet page handed out 19,700 Bitcoin — now worth $1.86 billion — for solving CAPTCHAs.

Users could earn up to 5 Bitcoin per day from Andresen’s page. The Bitcoin faucets encouraged wallet creation and transactions, which assisted with the expansion of Bitcoin’s user base and network activity.

Other websites such as FreeBitco.in started offering similar services between 2011 and 2013. But as Bitcoin’s price increased and transaction fees rose, rewards shrank, and the model eventually became unsustainable.

Shrem’s crypto journey has been a rollercoaster

Shrem co-founded one of the first Bitcoin exchanges, BitInstant, with Gareth Nelson in 2011. At its peak, the exchange facilitated around 30% of all Bitcoin transactions, according to Shrem’s personal page.

In order to offer the instant Bitcoin purchases that Bitcoin’s first dominant exchange, Mt. Gox, lacked, BitInstant purchased Bitcoin from Mt. Gox in large batches before reselling it to customers nearly instantly.

However, BitInstant’s business model faced scaling issues as its transaction volume grew. 

To support its expansion, the company received $100,000 from early Bitcoin investor Roger Ver, with additional backing later coming from Erik Voorhees and Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss.

BitInstant co-founders Gareth Nelson (left) and Charlie Shrem (right) pictured together at an industry event. Source: Charlieshrem.com

Shrem also co-founded the Bitcoin Foundation in 2012, serving as vice chairman to encourage the adoption of Bitcoin as an alternative to traditional banking.

However, on Jan. 26, 2014, Shrem was arrested while attempting to disembark from a plane in New York and later charged with money laundering related to his role with BitInstant.

Authorities claimed that some BitInstant customers used the Bitcoin purchased from BitInstant for illicit purposes, including criminal transactions on the Silk Road dark web marketplace.

Shrem pleaded guilty to a reduced charge and served one year before being released in 2016. 

Related: Bitcoin eyes $95K retest as traders brace for Fed rate cut volatility

After prison, Shrem returned to the crypto space, founding crypto advisory firm CryptoIQ and Druid Ventures, a $13 million crypto-focused venture capital fund. 

He also launched The Charlie Shrem Show, a podcast with over 400 episodes featuring some of the industry’s most notable crypto figures.

Shrem was then sued by the Winklevoss twins in 2018, claiming Shrem stole 5,000 Bitcoin from them in 2012. A court overturned an asset freeze against Shrem and ordered the brothers to cover Shrem’s legal fees in November 2018. The case was settled confidentially in 2019.

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