Key points:

The US labor market is “still holding up” as nonfarm payrolls data comes in higher than expected.

Bitcoin and stocks head higher as US President Donald Trump repeats calls for the Fed to lower interest rates.

BTC price action may spark a “liquidity grab” above $97,000, a trader warns.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit new multimonth highs after the May 2 Wall Street open as US nonfarm payrolls data beat expectations.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin meanders after nonfarm payrolls beat

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD building on $97,000 as markets digested the latest in a bumper week of macro data.

Nonfarm payrolls indicated 177,000 jobs added in April, considerably more than the roughly 140,000 forecast.

“The labor market is still holding up,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of a reaction on X.

The strong result is ostensibly less bullish for crypto and risk assets as it implies that the labor market is more resilient to tight financial conditions, including raised interest rates, than expected.

This, in turn, gives the US Federal Reserve more leeway to keep those conditions in play for longer, depriving markets of the liquidity influx associated with lower rates.

Despite this, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index were both up more than 1.3% on the day at the time of writing.

In his latest post on Truth Social, meanwhile, US President Donald Trump reiterated calls on the Fed to cut rates — an approach adopted throughout his ongoing implementation of trade tariffs.

“Consumers have been waiting for years to see pricing come down. NO INFLATION, THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!” part of the post stated, referencing various inflation markers.

Source: Truth Social

As Cointelegraph reported, the Fed’s next decision on rates will come on May 7, with markets overwhelmingly seeing no change to the current regime. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of a cut next week at just 2%.

Fed target rate probabilities for May FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Warning over BTC price “liquidity grab”

In Bitcoin circles, market participants eyed sellers’ response to continued pushes higher through the week.

Related: Bitcoin hodler unrealized profits near 350% as $100K risks sell-off

“Going to be an interesting day ahead,” popular trader Skew told X followers alongside a chart of exchange order book liquidity.

“Sellers have been defending $97.2K & shorts continue to scale into price. Passive spot flow will probably again decide the trend.”BTC/USDT charts with order book liquidity data. Source: Skew/X

Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades warned that current local highs may end up a ploy to take liquidity before a reversal.

“$BTC Broke out of the $93K to $96K range after price action got compressed for about a week,” part of an X post read prior to the macro data releases. 

“So far it’s a similar setup as the week before, but I wouldn’t want to see it trade back into that $93K-$96K range or this would just be a liquidity grab.”BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Another popular trader known as TheKingfisher referenced bid liquidity as a reason for a short-term dip to $95,000.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, meanwhile, gave an end-of-week BTC price target requirement of $99,000.

“If Bitcoin continues to hold above $93,500 (as it has been thus far), then price will be positioned for a move across the range,” he explained alongside the weekly BTC/USD chart the day prior.

“However, it’s key that $BTC breaks the black Lower High resistance within this Range which is positioned at ~$99k this week.”BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

The US Central Intelligence Agency is increasingly incorporating Bitcoin (BTC) as a tool in its operations, and working with the cryptocurrency is a matter of national security, Michael Ellis, the agency’s deputy director, told podcast host Anthony Pompliano.

In an appearance on the market analyst and investor’s show, Ellis told Pompliano that the intelligence agency works with law enforcement to track BTC, and it is a point of data collection in counter-intelligence operations. Ellis added:

“Bitcoin is here to stay — cryptocurrency is here to stay. As you know, more and more institutions are adopting it, and I think that is a great trend. One that this administration has obviously been leaning forward into.”

“It’s another area of competition where we need to ensure the United States is well-positioned against China and other adversaries,” Ellis said.

Podcast host and investor Anthony Pompliano (left) and Deputy CIA director Michael Ellis (right). Source: Anthony Pompliano

Although Ellis’s comments point to Bitcoin maturing as an asset, they also reflect the increased involvement of governments and institutions in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. This increased involvement runs contrary to the libertarian and cypherpunk ethos originally inherent in crypto.

Related: Geopolitical tensions fuel central bank shift toward gold, crypto — BlackRock exec

Bitcoin: from cypherpunk experiment to state reserve asset

US President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve on March 7, to mixed reactions from the Bitcoin community.

Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey celebrated the move, while Venice AI founder and BTC advocate Erik Vorhees warned against the government owning any Bitcoin but added that if the US government is to adopt any crypto reserve, it should be Bitcoin-only.

Concerns that cryptocurrencies have lost their cypherpunk roots predate the current market cycle and any strategic reserve legislation or comprehensive regulatory frameworks for digital assets.

In March 2020, Therese Chambers, the former director of retail and regulatory investigations at the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), argued that cryptocurrencies had become increasingly financialized and institutionalized.

Chambers added that digital assets were behaving far more like traditional financial instruments than the privacy-preserving tools they were initially billed as.

Magazine: Big Questions: Did the NSA create Bitcoin?

In the annals of financial history, few institutions have faced the tempests of competition with the steadfast resolve of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Born in 2013 as a private placement, GBTC pioneered regulated Bitcoin investment, granting investors access to Bitcoin’s (BTC) meteoric rise without the perils of digital wallets or unregulated exchanges.

On Jan. 11, 2024, it transitioned into a spot Bitcoin ETF following a landmark victory against the SEC. This marked a pivotal moment with the SEC’s view that ETFs can offer lower expense ratios and enhanced tax efficiency compared to traditional funds. 

Even still, GBTC’s financial resilience shines, generating $268.5 million in annual revenue, surpassing the $211.8 million of all other US spot Bitcoin ETFs combined, despite losing over half its holdings with $18 billion in outflows since early 2024. This is no fleeting triumph of inertia. 

The numbers tell a tale of paradox. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), with $56 billion in assets under management (AUM) and a 0.25% fee, generated $137 million in 2024 while achieving $35.8 billion in inflows and $1 billion in daily trading volume within weeks of launch. Meanwhile, GBTC’s 1.5% expense ratio, up to seven times higher than competitors, fuels its revenue lead, even though it bled $17.4 billion in outflows, with a record single-day loss of $618 million on March 19, 2024, driven by investors chasing lower fees or capitalizing on the trust’s historical discount to net asset value (NAV), which plummeted from 50% to near zero by July 2024.

This clash of revenue dominance and capital flight demands scrutiny, unveiling the intricate dance of investor psychology, market dynamics and Grayscale’s calculated resilience.

Yet, GBTC’s $18 billion in AUM and its ability to generate $268.5 million despite significant outflows points to a deeper narrative: tax friction and institutionalized inertia. The inability of companies, family offices and other institutions to quickly pivot due to tax barriers and company directives bubbles to the surface. The $100-billion total spot Bitcoin ETF market points to the stakes of this contest, with Grayscale’s revenue dominance poised to evolve as competition intensifies.

Related: The sentiment engine of Bitcoin ETFs is rewiring market structure

What sustains GBTC’s revenue crown in this crucible of competition? Is it the arithmetic of high fees applied to a still-formidable AUM, the loyalty of battle-scarred investors, or the unseen weight of tax frictions binding them to their positions?

As we probe this question, we uncover the mechanics of GBTC’s dominance and the broader currents shaping the future of crypto investment. The answer lies in a potent blend of history, strategy and the unyielding faith of investors in a titan that, against all odds, refuses to yield.

GBTC Rev vs. all other ETFs. Source: CoinGlass

Grayscale’s high-fee revenue engine

At the core of GBTC’s revenue dominance lies its 1.5% expense ratio, a towering figure beside competitors like IBIT and FBTC (both 0.25%), Bitwise (0.24%) and Franklin Templeton (0.19%).

Applied to $17.9 billion in AUM, this fee yields $268.5 million annually, eclipsing the $211.8-million combined revenue of all other US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which manage $89 billion collectively.

ETF Store president Nate Geraci remarked on X, “GBTC still making more [money] than all of the other ETFs combined… And it’s not even close.” This arithmetic edge endures despite $21 billion in outflows since January 2024, including a daily average loss of $89.9 million, underscoring the sheer power of high fees on a substantial asset base.

Source: Nate Geraci

The fee structure is both GBTC’s bastion and its Achilles’ heel. Before its ETF conversion, GBTC charged 2%, a rate justified by its monopoly as the sole US vehicle for Bitcoin exposure within traditional portfolios. Post-conversion, the 1.5% fee draws ire, with Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research for Morningstar, predicting sustained outflows as investors flock to cheaper alternatives. 

Grayscale’s counterstroke was the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC), launched in March 2025 with a 0.15% fee (the lowest among US spot Bitcoin ETPs). Seeded with 10% of GBTC’s Bitcoin holdings ($1.7 billion AUM), the Mini Trust has drawn $168.9 million in inflows, targeting cost-conscious investors. However, the Mini Trust’s lower revenue per dollar of AUM ($2.55 million annually) pales beside GBTC’s $268.5 million, reinforcing the latter’s dominance.

Grayscale’s dual strategy (high-fee GBTC for revenue, low-fee Mini Trust for retention) reveals a nuanced defense, but the fortress of GBTC’s fees remains unbreached, its revenue crown secure for now.

Legacy and loyalty

Beyond the arithmetic of fees, GBTC’s revenue supremacy rests on its storied legacy, the fierce loyalty it inspires and the formidable tax frictions that tether investors to its fold. Since 2013, Grayscale has been the standard-bearer of regulated Bitcoin investment, overcoming regulatory tempests to become the first publicly traded Bitcoin fund in 2015 and the largest spot Bitcoin ETF by AUM ($26 billion) upon its NYSE Arca listing in 2024.

Its August 2023 legal victory against the US SEC, which compelled the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, solidified its stature as a pioneer. This legacy resonates with institutional and accredited investors, many of whom entered GBTC during its private placement phase or at steep NAV discounts, forging a bond that endures.

Tax considerations form a silent but mighty anchor. Many early GBTC investors purchased shares at low prices, with Bitcoin trading at $800 in 2013 compared to the mid-$90,000 range by May 2025. This roughly 120-fold increase has generated substantial unrealized capital gains, making sales costly.

Related: Bitcoin price recovers, Ethereum RWA value up 20%: April in charts

An investor who purchased 100 shares of GBTC at $10 in 2015 and now sees them valued at $400 each would be sitting on a $39,000 capital gain. Selling those shares to move into a lower-fee ETF like IBIT or FBTC could trigger a tax bill of $7,800 at the 20% long-term capital gains rate typically applied to high-net-worth individuals or $5,850 at the 15% rate for others. This kind of taxable event often discourages redemptions, particularly for long-term holders in taxable accounts.

On the other hand, for those holding GBTC in tax-advantaged vehicles such as IRAs or 401(k)s, gains can be deferred and, in the case of Roth IRAs, avoided entirely, making GBTC comparatively more attractive for legacy investors reluctant to switch.

Psychological factors amplify these barriers. Loss aversion (the reluctance to realize taxable gains) and loyalty to Grayscale’s brand deter investors from abandoning a vehicle that weathered Bitcoin’s volatility. The closure of the NAV discount (from 50% to near zero in July 2024) spurred outflows as arbitrageurs cashed out. Still, core holders remain, bolstered by trust in Grayscale’s custodianship via Coinbase Custody, which secures $18.08 billion in AUM in May 2024. Its investor base, spanning crypto-native institutions, hedge funds and retail clients via platforms like Fidelity and Schwab, values its simplicity (no crypto wallets required) and regulatory pedigree.

While IBIT and FBTC draw new capital with lower fees and liquidity, GBTC retains a niche among those who see it as a battle-tested titan. Former Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein’s claim that outflows are reaching “equilibrium” suggests a stabilizing core, with tax frictions and legacy fortifying retention. In a market driven by innovation, GBTC’s history, bolstered by tax barriers and investor faith, is its shield, guarding its revenue crown against the relentless advance of newer rivals.

A historical timeline graphic showing GBTC milestones (2013 launch, 2015 public trading, 2023 SEC victory, 2024 ETF conversion), with Bitcoin price spikes ($800 to $103,000) and AUM growth overlaid. Source: Dr. Michael Tabone 

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