For years, crypto investors have looked to the four-year cycle, anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events, as a kind of sacred roadmap. The theory goes: Every four years, Bitcoin’s supply is cut in half, triggering a bullish frenzy, followed by a euphoric peak, a brutal crash, and then a slow recovery. Rinse, repeat.

But what if that model is starting to break? That is what onchain analyst James Check suggests.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, Check said that the tidy frameworks that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior are no longer as useful in today’s macro-driven, institutionally influenced environment.

Rather than labeling the current market as “bull” or “bear,” Check paints a more nuanced picture. Bitcoin, he argues, is now driven more by macroeconomic conditions and investor psychology than by predictable cycles or halving dates. As such, the lines between bull and bear get blurry.

“The world doesn’t operate on four-year cycles,” he says. “You can imagine a headline tomorrow where suddenly all these tariffs get pulled back […] and markets start to move. I can just as easily construct a case where the next headline could send all risk assets into a pretty nasty decline.”

Check also breaks down why the $70K–$75K range is such a critical confidence zone for the Bitcoin market — and how thinking in terms of scenarios rather than predictions is key for an investor’s long-term success.

Check out the full interview on Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel, and don’t forget to subscribe!

For years, crypto investors have looked to the four-year cycle—anchored around Bitcoin’s halving events—as a kind of sacred roadmap. The theory goes: every four years, Bitcoin’s supply is cut in half, triggering a bullish frenzy, followed by a euphoric peak, a brutal crash, and then a slow recovery. Rinse, repeat.

But what if that model is starting to break?

That’s exactly what leading on-chain analyst James Check suggests in our latest interview. In his view, the tidy frameworks that once defined Bitcoin’s market behavior are no longer as useful in today’s macro-driven, institutionally influenced environment.

Rather than labeling the current market as “bull” or “bear,” James paints a more nuanced picture. Bitcoin, he argues, is now driven more by macroeconomic conditions and investor psychology than by predictable cycles or halving dates. And in that world, the lines between bull and bear get blurry.

“The world doesn’t operate on four-year cycles,” he says. “You can imagine a headline tomorrow where suddenly all these tariffs get pulled back […] and markets start to move. I can just as easily construct a case where the next headline could send all risk assets into a pretty nasty decline.”

Check also breaks down why the $70K–$75K range is such a critical confidence zone for the Bitcoin market—and how thinking in terms of scenarios rather than predictions is key for an investor’s long-term success.

Check out the full interview on our YouTube channel—and don’t forget to subscribe!

Some of the top holders of Donald Trump’s memecoin could come out of the shadows to appear for a dinner the US President is planning to host on May 22.

As of April 23, the official Trump memecoin (TRUMP) website offered the opportunity for the “top 220” holders to meet the president in person in Washington, DC. At the time of publication, the guest list for the event was unclear, but the project stated any tokenholder who applied had to pass a background check, “can not be from a [Know Your Customer] watchlist country,” and could not have any additional guests.

The memecoin, which the then-president-elect launched on Jan. 17 before taking office, has been heavily criticized by the crypto industry and lawmakers for potentially allowing foreign officials and interest groups to send money directly to the US President without proper disclosure and oversight.

The team behind the project controls 80% of the total supply, while the identities of many of the other top tokenholders are mainly unknown.

Top TRUMP memecoin holders as of April 23. Source: TRUMP token

The price of the TRUMP memecoin surged roughly 52% from $9.30 to $14.20 shortly after the dinner announcement. After the token launched on Jan. 17, the project’s market capitalization increased to roughly $15 billion before dropping 50% by Jan. 20.

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

Key points:

Bitcoin ETF inflows obliterated the 2025 average on April 22.

ETF performance remains tightly dependent on BTC price action, with the turnaround following six-week highs in BTC/USD.

ETFs themselves are gaining influence, with one commentator arguing that they can “determine” exchange activity.

Bitcoin (BTC) institutional investors piled over eleven times the all-time average into the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on April 22.

Fresh data from onchain analytics firm Glassnode confirms that the $912 million ETF inflows equal more than 500 times the 2025 daily average.

Glassnode: 2025 ETF average inflow just 23 BTC

Bitcoin ETFs immediately felt the impact of BTC price rises this week, with inflows undergoing a “dramatic” turnaround to nearly $1 billion in a single day. BTC/USD hit its highest levels since early March.

Glassnode reveals just how unusual such a tally is — in 2025, so far, the average daily inflow has been just 23 BTC ($2.1 million).

“This was the largest daily inflow since November 11, 2024, marking a notable resurgence in demand,” researchers explained in an X thread on the topic.

US spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: Glassnode

The April 22 total thus stands at more than 500 times the average for a year in which dramatic sentiment shifts have led to periods of major outflows across the ETF cohort.

Even in the context of the ETFs’ entire lifespan since their January 2024 launch, the $912 million figure is rare and constitutes around 11.5 times the daily average.

“Since inception, the average daily inflow is approximately 1,031 $BTC,” Glassnode added, calling the April 22 total a “significant deviation.”

US spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: Glassnode

ETFs become “marginal buyer” for BTC

Continuing, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas was among those optimistic about the ETFs’ change of fortunes.

Related: Bitcoin exchange buying is back as ‘Spoofy the Whale’ lifts $90K asks

“The spot bitcoin ETFs went Pac-Man mode yesterday,” he told X followers.

Balchunas noted that inflows increased across most of the eleven ETFs — a move that contrasts with the common scenario in which the largest product, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), takes in the lion’s share of investments.

Andre Dragosch, European head of research at asset management firm Bitwise, was equally buoyant.

“Great to see very positive net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs again — In fact, they have become ‘the marginal buyer’ in Bitcoin since Jan 2024,” he observed alongside more Glassnode data. 

“The can actually determine whether you see negative or positive net buying volumes on BTC spot exchanges.”US spot Bitcoin ETF flows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.