Traders on the Kalshi prediction market place the odds of a US recession in 2025 at 61%, following the sweeping tariff order signed by President Donald Trump on April 2.

Kalshi uses the standard criteria of a recession, two business quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth, as reported by the United States Department of Commerce.

Odds of a US recession on the prediction platform have nearly doubled since March 20 and mirror the current 2025 US recession odds on Polymarket, which traders on the platform currently place at 60%.

The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 deteriorated rapidly following US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff order and the ensuing sell-off in capital markets, sparking fears of a prolonged bear market.

Odds of US recession in 2025 top 60% on the Kalshi prediction market. Source: kalshi

Related: Bitcoin bulls defend $80K support as ‘World War 3 of trade wars’ crushes US stocks

Trump’s executive order throws markets in disarray

The US President’s executive order established a 10% baseline tariff rate for all countries and different “reciprocal” tariff rates on trading partners with existing tariffs on US import goods.

Trump’s announcement triggered an immediate stock market sell-off, wiping away over $5 trillion in shareholder value in a matter of days.

Fears of a recession continue to grow as market analysts warn of a potentially protracted trade war that negatively impacts global markets and suppresses risk asset prices, including cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, President Trump has expressed confidence that the tariffs will strengthen the US economy long-term and correct any trade imbalances.

“The markets are going to boom,” the President said on April 3, describing the current market sell-off as an expected part of the process.

The stock market sell-off continues as stocks shed trillions in shareholder value. Source: TradingView

Asset manager Anthony Pompliano recently speculated that President Trump deliberately crashed markets to bring down interest rates.

Pompliano cited the reduction in 10-year US Treasury bonds as evidence that the President’s strategy of forcing a recession to impact rates is working.

Interest rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds declined from approximately 4.66% in January 2025 to just 4.00% on April 5. President Trump is also pressuring Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell to lower short-term interest rates.

“This would be a perfect time for Fed chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates,” Trump wrote in an April 4 Truth Social post.

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Solana’s native token SOL (SOL) dropped by 9% between March 28 and April 4, but several key metrics grew during the same period. Despite SOL’s price downturn, the Solana network continues to outpace competitors, maintaining its second-place position in deposits and trading volume. Traders now wonder how long it will take for SOL’s price to reflect this onchain strength.

Solana outperforms rivals in TVL deposits and DEX volumes

Investor’s declining interest in SOL could be linked to the April 4 staking unlock of 1.79 million SOL, worth over $200 million. The selling pressure is clear, as these tokens were staked in April 2021, when SOL traded near $23. Another factor is the decline in interest for memecoins, which had been a major driver of new user adoption on Solana. With fewer speculative inflows, growth in activity may not translate to immediate price gains.

Several meme-themed cryptocurrencies, including WIF, PENGU, POPCAT, AI16Z, BOME, and ACT, saw declines of 20% or more over the past seven days. Yet, despite worsening market conditions, the Solana network outperformed some competitors. Its Total Value Locked (TVL) rose to the highest level since June 2022, while decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes showed notable resilience.

Solana Total Vale Locked (TVL), SOL. Source: DefiLlama

Deposits in Solana network’s DApps rose to 53.8 million SOL on April 2, marking a 14% increase from the previous month. In US dollar terms, the $6.5 billion total stands $780 million ahead of its closest competitor, BNB Chain. Solana’s top DApps by TVL include Jito (liquid staking), Jupiter (leading DEX), and Kamino (lending and liquidity platform).

Solana gains support for scalability, and Web3 focus despite MEV concerns

While not yet a direct threat to Ethereum’s $50 billion TVL, Solana’s onchain data shows greater resilience compared to BNB Chain, Tron, and Ethereum layer-2 networks like Base and Arbitrum. In decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes, Solana holds a 24% market share, while BNB Chain accounts for 12% and Base captures 10%, according to data from DefiLlama.

DEX volumes monthly market share. Source: DefiLlama

While Ethereum has regained the lead in DEX volumes, Solana has shown strong resilience following the memecoin bubble burst. For context, Raydium’s weekly volumes dropped 95% from the $42.9 billion all-time high reached in mid-January. Still, Solana has demonstrated that traders appreciate its focus on base layer scalability and integrated Web3 user experience despite ongoing criticism related to maximum extractable value (MEV).

Source: X/Cbb0fe

In short, MEV occurs when validators reorder transactions for profit. This practice is not unique to Solana, but some market participants—such as user Cbb0fe, a self-proclaimed decentralized finance (DeFi) liquidity provider—have raised concerns about insider gatekeeping. While not stated directly, the criticism likely refers to incentives provided by Solana Labs to offset the high investment and maintenance costs required by certain validators.

Supporters of changing Solana’s token emissions argue that rewards earned through MEV already provide sufficient incentives for validators to secure the network, eliminating the need for further inflationary pressure on SOL. Meanwhile, Loring Harkness, a core contributor to Shutter Network, advocates for encrypting transactions before they enter the mempool as a way to prevent validators from manipulating their order.

Solana’s growth in TVL and resilience in DEX market share may not be enough for SOL to retest the $200 level seen in mid-February. However, it has firmly secured its second-place position behind Ethereum as a leading platform for decentralized applications, supported by consistent activity, infrastructure development, and growing interest from both developers and users.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Mixed-martial arts (MMA) champion Conor McGregor launched a memecoin called “REAL” on April 5, which will reportedly feature staking rewards and voting rights for token holders.

Spokespeople for the project told Cointelegraph that the token was launched through a sealed-bid auction to eliminate snipers and bots hijacking the token launch. The project was developed in a collaboration with the Real World Gaming decentralized autonomous organization (DAO).

REAL token initial allocation breakdown. Source: Real World Gaming DAO

The auction will take place from April 5-6. In a statement shared with Cointelegraph, McGregor touted the launch as a fair memecoin offering:

“This is not some celebrity-endorsed bullshit token, it is a REAL game changer that will change the crypto ecosystem as well as make REAL change in the world. The sealed-bid auction is the new way of launching a token to prevent rug pulls and snipers.

“This is about transparency — we are showing the world how it is done with integrity,” McGregor continued.

Source: Conor McGregor

The memecoin narrative peaked following the launch of the TRUMP memecoin by US President Donald Trump. However, savvy traders continue hunting memecoins, keeping the market alive.

Related: Ghibli memecoins surge as internet flooded with Studio Ghibli-style AI images

Meme “supercycle” dead but savvy traders still in the game

Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard recently told Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction that “smart money” traders are still scouring for memecoin trades but are just as likely to rapidly exit those positions for quick gains.

Sondergaard attributed the recent activity in the memecoin market to savvy traders making a “fun play” while waiting for the macroeconomic outlook to settle and for markets to shake out.

US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and the counter-tariff responses from trading partners create a difficult environment for risk-on assets, as investors flee riskier asset classes for safe havens.

Following the sweeping tariff order, US stocks shed $5 trillion in value. The catastrophic stock market loss within a single day totaled more than the total market capitalization of crypto.

The price of Bitcoin remains firm and rangebound compared to the total crypto market cap shown in blue. Source: TradingView

As fears of a prolonged global trade war spread and market analysts warn of a potential recession, the price of Bitcoin continues to remain anchored above the $80,000 level.

Bitcoin’s resilience during the current market downturn suggests that more investors are beginning to see the digital asset as a store of value as opposed to a risk-on asset.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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