Demand from financial institutions could push the price of Bitcoin (BTC) as high as $200,000 per coin in 2025, according to two research reports reviewed by Cointelegraph. 

Analysts from Standard Chartered and Intellectia AI said institutional Bitcoin demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and traders seeking to hedge against macroeconomic risk could cause Bitcoin’s price to more than double this year.

“While the forecast is optimistic, it’s also conditional. Any black swan — from a major regulatory clampdown to a geopolitical event — can disrupt trajectories,” Fei Chen, Intellectia AI’s chief investment strategist, told Cointelegraph. 

Bitcoin ETF inflows since January 2024. Source: CoinGlass

Related: US Bitcoin ETFs clock biggest inflows since January as crypto markets gain

Bullish sentiment

The reports come as Bitcoin broke past $90,000 on April 22 for the first time in six weeks, reflecting traders embracing Bitcoin and gold as potential hedges against looming trade wars and geopolitical volatility. 

The price action followed the biggest daily net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs since January. 

The US’s 11 spot BTC funds collectively pulled more than $380 million in net inflows on April 21, according to CoinGlass data.

Intellectia AI said institutional demand drivers — including corporate Bitcoin buyers and exchanges such as Coinbase and Kraken — could continue to propel positive price action. 

Corporate Bitcoin treasuries already hold nearly $65 billion worth of BTC, according to data from Bitcointreasuries.net.

Hedgers still prefer gold over Bitcoin. Source: Binance Research

Hedging or speculation?

Gold and BTC “appear to have become more important components of investors’ portfolios structurally” as they increasingly seek to hedge against geopolitical risk and inflation, investment bank JP Morgan said in a January research note. 

However, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold — historically a preferred hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty — has been low since US President Donald Trump announced sweeping import tariffs on April 2, Binance Research said on April 7. 

In fact, Bitcoin has been more closely correlated with equities, Binance said. 

Paradoxically, sustained ETF inflows could further diminish Bitcoin’s status as a macroeconomic hedge, eroding one of its most attractive traits for institutions, Spencer Yang, a core contributor for crypto infrastructure project Fractal Bitcoin, told Cointelegraph. 

“Despite growing institutional interest, Bitcoin’s long-term resilience won’t be secured by balance sheet optics alone — it depends on real usage,” Yang said. 

“That means people actually transacting, building, and experimenting on the network — not just holding BTC as a speculative asset.”

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Bitcoin (BTC) price has been in a persistent downtrend since January, but the April 22 surge past $91,000 marks its first higher high breakout of the year and the potential start of a new longer-term uptrend.Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The higher high pattern occurred after BTC moved above its previous lower high and resistance at $88,500, but the real factor that will keep price afloat is buying volumes in various cohorts of the Bitcoin market.

The US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of $381 million on April 21, levels not seen since Jan. 30.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: SoSoValue

Rising spot BTC inflows, along with Bitcoin’s increase in price, point to a possible resurgence in institutional demand for Bitcoin, and the change in trend from the ETFs could offset the selling pressure that has put a cap on BTC price for months.

However, retail investor demand (buy volumes between $0 and 10,000) remained below 0%, which suggested that low volume buyers are not back yet. Over the past year, these investors have lagged behind BTC price breakouts, but they strengthen price momentum once the investor volume turns positive.

Bitcoin retail investor demand by 30-day change. Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn highlighted that the present rally is leverage-driven rather than spot volume-driven. Glassnode data also pointed out that Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) increased by $2.4 billion in less than 36 hours.

For Bitcoin price to sustain a strong position above $90,000, the current discrepancy between futures traders and retail traders needs to decrease.

Related: Bitcoin-to-gold ratio risks 35% decline following Wall Street’s $13T wipeout

Bitcoin could gain “70% to 80% from here”

From a longer-term perspective, DYOR crypto founder Hitesh Malviya said BTC could gain 70% to 80% if it maintains a MVRV ratio of 2 for the next six weeks.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a key onchain metric, compares Bitcoin’s market cap to its realized cap—the value of coins at their last transaction price. Historically, an MVRV above 3.7 often signals overvaluation and market tops, while values near 2 have preceded strong price rallies.

Bitcoin MVRV ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin’s MVRV score remained above 2 from October 2024 to February 2025, coinciding with its all-time high. Recently, the metric fell below 2 during the market correction, but it is now attempting to reclaim this key level.

Related: Bitcoin traders turn to $93K yearly open as BTC price hits 6-week high

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

A lawyer representing one of the co-founders of crypto mining service Hashflare has addressed how their criminal case may move forward after the pair received “self-deport” letters from the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

In an April 11 filing in the US District Court for the Western District of Washington, Hashflare co-founders Sergei Potapenko and Ivan Turogin reported they had received a DHS letter directing them to “leave the United States” as part of a push by the Trump administration to effect mass deportations. The government letter contradicted orders from Judge Robert Lasnik, who restricted travel for Potapenko and Turogin as part of their bail conditions.

In February, the Estonian nationals pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud as part of a deal with authorities. Between 2015 and 2019, the two were responsible for defrauding Hashflare users out of more than $550 million. They also raised $25 million from investors in 2017, claiming they would establish a digital bank called Polybius. The firm was never created.

Indicted in October 2022, Potapenko and Turogin were arrested and held in Estonia before their extradition to the US in May 2024. Both have been free on bail since July 2024 but could face up to 20 years in prison each at sentencing.

Ordered to leave, forced to stay

“[Potapenko and Turogin each] got letters from DHS to their personal email saying ‘deport immediately,’” Reed Smith partner and defense counsel Mark Bini told Cointelegraph. “It caused some angst because [our client and his co-defendant], their conditions of release include that they comply with the law. And here you have this letter saying if you stay in the country, you’re breaking the law. And of course, their bail conditions say they can’t leave the Seattle area.” 

Related: Russian Gotbit founder strikes $23M plea deal with US prosecutors

The DHS letters ordering certain people to “depart the United States immediately” were reportedly sent to thousands of immigrants who had used the government’s CBP One app to enter the country legally. However, some citizens reported receiving the same letter in US President Donald Trump’s attempts to effect deportations through his office.  

Bini initially thought it was a possibility that the US government was suggesting that Potapenko or Turogin “self-deport” to Estonia after the Justice Department issued a memo hinting it would change its enforcement policy in criminal cases involving crypto. The Hashflare co-founders had been expected to remain in the jurisdiction until at least Aug. 14 for their sentencing hearings.

“I have not encountered this situation before, where you have essentially two folks in the federal government telling you conflicting things,” said Bini. 

The attorney added that Potapenko or Turogin now carried letters with them at all times that stated DHS had deferred action on their “self-deportation” for one year in the event that authorities mistakenly tried to detain them and remove them from the country. Though the pair could still receive prison time, Potapenko, Turogin and Hashflare reported returning $400 million in crypto payments to users and “agreed to forfeit their interests in assets that the government froze in 2022.”

“We’re going to try and convince the judge to frankly side with DHS and let them self-deport to Estonia to their families because we believe that there was no actual financial harm to the customers of Hashflare,” said Bini. “It’s a weird [case] because for our clients, we want to be deported. Our clients are Estonian. Their families are Estonian.” 

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