XRP (XRP) price is up 13% on the day, trading above the $2 level after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on all reciprocal tariffs, except for China, which saw an additional 125% hike in response to their counter-tariffs against the US.

XRP’s rally comes on the heels of additional positive news and the XXRP ETF being launched on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Arca. 

Despite the positive macroeconomic and TradFi crypto adoption news, XRP charts still caution that a sharp price downside could lie ahead.

Descending triangle pattern hints at a 33% drop

Since December 2024, XRP price has been forming a potential triangle pattern on its daily chart, characterized by a flat support level mixed with a downward-sloping resistance line.

A descending triangle chart pattern that forms after a strong uptrend is seen as a bearish reversal indicator. As a rule, the setup resolves when the price breaks below the flat support level and falls by as much as the triangle’s maximum height.

The price dropped below the triangle’s support line at $2 on April 6, confirming a potential breakdown move. In this case, the price may fall toward the downside target at around $1.20 by the end of April, down 33% from current price levels.

XRP/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

XRP’s descending triangle target echoes trader CasiTrade’s prediction that the altcoin could drop as low as $1.55 due to a “textbook” Elliott Wave Theory analysis.

“Right now, $1.81 is a critical level to break in this plan,” the trader said in an April 8 post on X, adding that if the price loses that level, it would confirm a deeper move.

According to CasiTrades, the next level to watch would be $1.71, where the price would pause temporarily before the “projected final low” at $1.55.

“Key zone: $1.55 is the golden retracement and the likely end to this entire corrective W2.”

XRP/USD 15-minute chart. Source: CasiTrades

The bearish outlook mirrored veteran trader Peter Brandt’s prediction that XRP price could decline to $1.07 due to a “textbook” head-and-shoulders pattern forming on the daily chart.
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Could XXRP ETF launch avert an XRP price sell-off?

Despite the launch of the XXRP ETF on NYSE Arca on April 8, 2025, XRP’s price remains precarious due to a mix of market dynamics and escalating trade wars. 

The 2x leveraged ETF, designed to amplify XRP’s daily returns, debuted amid heightened volatility, with XRP trading at around $1.71 after a 7.4% drop in 24 hours. 

The XXRP ETF attracted $5 million in first-day volume, in what Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas termed a commendable achievement considering the ongoing tumult in crypto and other global markets. 

Although this was 200x less than the volume posted by BlackRock’s IBIT ETF on day one, this performance puts XXRP in the top 5% of new ETF launches.

Source: Eric Balchunas

Beyond the XXRP ETF, macroeconomic factors, notably US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, take center stage this week, threatening further volatility across crypto markets. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Prediction marketplace Kalshi has started taking Bitcoin (BTC) deposits in a bid to onboard more crypto-native users.

The company that lets users bet on events ranging from election outcomes to Rotten Tomatoes film ratings has seen a strong uptake among crypto traders, Kalshi told Cointelegraph on April 9. For instance, event contracts for betting on Bitcoin’s hour-by-hour price changes have seen $143 million in trading volume to date, a spokesperson said.

Kalshi is a derivatives exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). As of April 9, it listed some 50 crypto-related event contracts, including markets for betting on coins’ 2025 highs and lows, as well as on headlines such as US President Donald Trump’s proposed National Bitcoin Reserve. 

Kalshi has doubled down on crypto event contract markets. Source: Kalshi

The platform started accepting crypto payments in October when it enabled stablecoin USD Coin (USDC) deposits. 

Kalshi relies on ZeroHash — a crypto payments infrastructure provider — for off-ramping BTC and USDC and converting the deposits to US dollars. The exchange accepts BTC deposits only from the Bitcoin network.

Most Kalshi traders no longer expect core tokens to earn positive returns this year. Source: Kalshi

Related: Kalshi traders place the odds of US recession in 2025 at over 61%

More accurate than polls

Launched in 2021, Kalshi rose to prominence ahead of the US’s November elections. 

It became a top venue for trading on 2024 political events after winning a lawsuit against the CFTC, which tried to block Kalshi from listing contracts tied to elections. 

The regulator argued that political prediction markets threaten the integrity of elections, but industry analysts say they often capture public sentiment more accurately than polls. 

For instance, prediction markets, including Kalshi, accurately predicted Trump’s presidential election win even as polls indicated a tossup.

“Event contract markets are a valuable public good for which there is no evidence of significant manipulation or widespread use for any nefarious purposes that the Commission alleges,” Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, said in an August comment letter filed with the CFTC.

As of April 9, Kalshi traders peg the odds of the US entering a recession at 68%, according to its website.

In March, Kalshi partnered with Robinhood to bring prediction markets to the popular online brokerage platform. Robinhood’s stock rose some 8% on the news. 

Kalshi competes with Polymarket, a Web3-based prediction platform. Polymarket processed more than $3 billion in trading volumes tied to the US presidential election despite being off-limits for US traders.

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United States President Donald Trump has issued a 90-day pause for “reciprocal tariffs,” and lowered the tariff rate to 10% on countries that do not retaliate with counter-tariffs.

However, the President also said he would increase the reciprocal tariff rate on China to 125% due to the country’s counter-tariffs against the US. Trump wrote in an April 9 Truth Social post:

“At some point, hopefully, in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the USA and other countries is no longer sustainable or acceptable.”

According to data from TradingView, the S&P 500 index rallied by close to 7% and the Nasdaq is up roughly 8% following the announcement, showcasing the high volatility of capital markets amid the macroeconomic uncertainty and the potential for a protracted trade conflict.

Source: Donald J. Trump

Related: Bitcoin has ‘fully decoupled’ despite tariff turmoil, says Adam Back

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.