Key takeaways:

Based on power curve trends, Bitcoin may hit $200,000 in Q4 2025.

Bitcoin follows gold’s price trend with a 100-150 day lag.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has rallied 11% this week, its best weekly return in 2025 and its highest seven-day growth since early November 2024. Bitcoin also reached $95,000 on April 25 for the first time since Feb. 24. 

Bitcoin 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

21st Capital co-founder Sina mentioned that Bitcoin reclaimed the power-law price. The power law’s predictive accuracy stems from Bitcoin’s network growth following Metcalfe’s Law, where value scales with the square of users. 

Based on Sina’s Bitcoin Quantile Model, reclaiming the power-law price keeps BTC on track to hit a price target of $130,000 and $163,000 before the end of 2025. 

Bitcoin Quantile Model by Sina. Source: X.com

As illustrated in the chart, Bitcoin is currently in the “Transition” range, where BTC accumulation occurs. Once it breaks into the “Acceleration” zone, the crypto asset enters the rally’s 33% to 66% range, progressively targeting $106,000, $130,000, and $163,000 over the next few months.

However, anonymous Bitcoin analyst apsk32 predicted BTC’s price target could be as high as $200,000 in 2025. The prediction is based on “Bitcoin power curve time contours,” which overlay Bitcoin’s price movements across four-year cycles (2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025). The chart suggests a strong performance in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, with the analyst noting that Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle remains intact. The analyst said,

“Looking at two-year segments centered today, 4, 8, and 12 years ago. Price scaling performed using the power curve trendline. Expecting $200,000+ Bitcoin in Q4. Gold suggests we could go significantly higher.”Bitcoin Power Curve Time Contours chart. Source: X.com

Related: 5 Bitcoin charts predicting BTC price rally toward $100K by May

Gold-Bitcoin lag may repeat Q4 rally

Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin and gold have posted new highs in the market, with each asset outperforming the other during specific periods. 

As illustrated in the chart, Bitcoin and gold achieved new highs between March and August 2024. However, in Q3 2024, gold spearheaded the rally, surpassing Bitcoin’s performance. By Q4, Bitcoin regained momentum, outpacing the precious metal and maintaining its lead until March 2025, when gold again took the lead. 

Bitcoin gold price performance chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Gold is still leading BTC but has dropped 6% since hitting new highs, while Bitcoin has gained 11%. Cointelegraph reported that BTC tends to follow gold’s directional bias with a lag of 100-150 days. Based on that narrative, it is possible that Bitcoin could lead gold in the coming weeks.

Similarly, the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to a new three-year low on April 21, which further fueled the likelihood of a rally for risk assets. Cointelegraph reported that multi-year DXY lows have been historically bullish for Bitcoin. Crypto analyst ‘Venture Founder’ also pointed out,

“Traditionally, DXY going down is very bullish for $BTC, we now have a massive bearish divergence for DXY, which may suggest it goes to 90. The last 2 times this happened triggered a Bitcoin parabolic bull run in the final phase of the bull market (lasting 12 months).”

Related: Bitcoin spikes to 7-week highs as analyst doubts chances of $100K rebound

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

SEC Commissioner and head of the crypto task force, Hester Peirce, says US financial firms are navigating crypto in a way that’s similar to playing the children’s game “the floor is lava,” but in the dark.

“It is time that we find a way to end this game. We need to turn on the lights and build some walkways over the lava pit,” Peirce said at the SEC “Know Your Custodian” roundtable event on April 25.

The lava is crypto, says Peirce

Peirce explained that SEC registrants are forced to approach crypto-related activities like “the floor is lava,” where the aim is to jump from one piece of furniture to the next without touching the ground, except here, touching crypto directly is the lava.

“A D.C. version of this game is our regulatory approach to crypto assets, and crypto asset custody in particular,” she said.

Peirce said that, much like in the game, firms wanting to engage with crypto must avoid directly holding it due to unclear regulatory rules. “To engage in crypto-related activities, SEC-registrants have had to hop from one poorly illuminated regulatory space to the next, all while ensuring that they never touch any crypto asset,” Peirce said.

Source: US Securities and Exchange Commission

Peirce said that investment advisers are often unsure which crypto assets qualify as securities, what entities count as qualified custodians, and whether “exercising staking or voting rights” could trigger custody violations.

“The twist in the regulatory version is that it is largely played in the dark: burning legal lava and no lamps to illuminate the way.”

Peirce also said that a broker or ATS that cannot custody or manage crypto assets will struggle to facilitate trading, making it unlikely for a “robust market” to develop.

Echoing a similar sentiment, SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda said at the event that as more SEC registrants work with crypto assets, it’s essential that they have access to custodial options that meet legal and regulatory requirements.

Uyeda said the agency should consider letting advisers use “state-chartered limited-purpose trust companies” with the authority to hold crypto assets as qualified custodians.

Related: Blockchain needs regulation, scalability to close AI hiring gap

Meanwhile, the recently sworn-in chair of the SEC, Paul Atkins, said that he expected “huge benefits” from blockchain technology through efficiency, risk mitigation, transparency, and cutting costs.

He reiterated that among his goals at the SEC would be to facilitate “clear regulatory rules of the road” for digital assets, hinting that the agency under former chair Gary Gensler had contributed to market and regulatory uncertainty.

“I look forward to engaging with market participants and working with colleagues in President Trump’s administration and Congress to establish a rational fit-for-purpose framework for crypto assets,” said Atkins.

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Solana decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Loopscale has temporarily halted its lending markets after suffering an approximately $5.8 million exploit. 

On April 26, a hacker siphoned approximately 5.7 million USDC (USDC) and 1200 Solana (SOL) from the lending protocol after taking out a “series of undercollateralized loans”, Loopscale co-founder Mary Gooneratne said in an X post. 

The exploit only impacted Loopscale’s USDC and SOL vaults and the losses represent around 12% of Loopscale’s total value locked (TVL), Gooneratne added. 

Loopscale is “working to resume repayment functionality as soon as possible to mitigate unforeseen liquidations,” its said in an X post. 

“Our team is fully mobilized to investigate, recover funds, and ensure users are protected,” Gooneratne said.

Loopscale’s ‘Genesis’ lending vaults. Source: Loopscale

In the first quarter of 2025, hackers stole more than $1.6 billion worth of crypto from exchanges and on-chain smart contracts, blockchain security firm PeckShield said in an April report. 

More than 90% of those losses are attributable to a $1.5 billion attack on ByBit, a centralized cryptocurrency exchange, by North Korean hacking outfit Lazarus Group.

Related: Crypto hacks top $1.6B in Q1 2025 — PeckShield

Unique DeFi lending model

Launched on April 10 after a six-month closed beta, Loopscale is a DeFi lending protocol designed to enhance capital efficiency by directly matching lenders and borrowers.

It also supports specialized lending markets, such as “structured credit, receivables financing, and undercollateralized lending,” Loopscale said in an April announcement shared with Cointelegraph. 

Loopscale’s order book model distinguishes it from DeFi lending peers such as Aave that aggregate cryptocurrency deposits into liquidity pools.

Loopscale’s daily active users. Source: Mary Gooneratne

Loopscale’s main USDC and SOL vaults yield APRs exceeding 5% and 10%, respectively. It also supports lending markets for tokens such as JitoSOL and BONK (BONK) and looping strategies for upwards of 40 different token pairs. 

The DeFi protocol has approximately $40 million in TVL and has attracted upwards of 7,000 lenders, according to researcher OurNetwork.

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